This dataset represents the observed trend in maximum annual five day consecutive precipitation over Europe, between 1960 and 2015, during the winter season (December, January, February). Heavy precipitation events have become more intense and more frequent in Europe on average, but there are important differences across regions, seasons, time periods, heavy precipitation indices and underlying datasets. Studies generally agree that heavy precipitation has become more intense in northern and north-eastern Europe since the 1950s, even though not all changes are statistically significant. Different studies and indices show diverging trends for south-western and southern Europe. Heavy precipitation may lead to local surface water flooding in cities, therefore should be considered in adaptation planning. This dataset is used also in the EEA Indicator "Heavy precipitation in Europe": https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/precipitation-extremes-in-europe-3/assessment, which in the meantime has been updated.

This gridded dataset presents the projected changes (in percentage) in heavy precipitation in winter season (December, January, February) in Europe, from 1971-2000 to 2071–2100 for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, based on the ensemble mean of different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested in different General Circulation Models (GCMs). This dataset is an output of the EURO-CORDEX data, produced in the context of the EURO-CORDEX initiative. EURO-CORDEX is the European branch of the CORDEX initiative, producing ensemble climate simulations based on multiple dynamical and empirical-statistical downscaling models forced by multiple global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). More information about this initiative on: https://www.euro-cordex.net/060374/index.php.en. The dataset has been used in the EEA Indicator "Heavy precipitation in Europe": https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/precipitation-extremes-in-europe-3/assessment, which in the meantime has been updated.